Winter may slowly be creeping closer, but Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) expects that Toronto and much of Southern Ontario will actually lean toward a milder-than-usual start to the season.
According to ECCC’s latest three-month forecast (covering November 2025 through January 2026), Toronto has about a 43 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures, a 35 per cent chance of near-normal temperatures and a 22 per cent chance of below-normal temperatures. The agency gives this forecast a “medium” confidence level (so around 40 per cent, which means there’s a warm tilt overall, but milder weather isn’t guaranteed).
ECCC’s more detailed, station-by-station outlook also lists both Toronto and Toronto Island temperatures as “normal” overall, but with the highest probability in the ‘above-normal’ range (40-49 per cent). So, although the odds point to a slightly warmer-than-usual winter, there’s still room for a few cold snaps or snowfalls.
Looking at Canada as a whole, ECCC’s national maps for the Nov 2025-Jan 2026 window show the highest odds of above-normal temperatures over northern and western Canada, with Southern Ontario in a lighter warm-tilt zone. That means the region could see more freeze-thaw cycles, less persistent deep cold, and maybe a few more slushy days than snow-packed ones (just keep a heavy coat on hand).
ECCC forecasts show that October was warmer than usual across much of Ontario, with a clear warm trend in many cities, but Toronto could see its first taste of winter soon! Both Environment Canada and The Weather Network are calling for on-and-off rain through the weekend, with a small chance of flurries by Monday, as overnight temperatures dip toward freezing and the wind chill feels closer to –5 °C.
If you’re a die-hard patio lover looking for somewhere warm to hide when the flurries hit, check out these amazing ways to avoid all thoughts of winter in Toronto right now.
