The Polaris Music Prize is awarded to the best Canadian album of the year independent of record sales, genre or popularity. In recent years it’s become one of the premier incentives for, and promotions of, Canadian music. On Sept. 19 the winner will be named, and this year’s may be a surprise for being, well, a little unsurprising. Here are the shortlist nominees, along with a selected track from their albums, plus, a highly unscientific estimate as to their chances of winning.
Colin Stetson, New History Warfare Vol. 2: Judges
A touring member of Arcade Fire, Stetson’s second solo album is an alternative jazz mix of ambient lyrics and a variety of instruments. The saxophonist’s album is probably too obscure to win in this field, but the nomination draws attention to an incredibly unique sound.
Prediction: 30 per cent
Destroyer, Kaputt
Vancouver’s Daniel Bejar formed the indie rock/pop group Destroyer in the ‘90s. The name contrasts with the breezy, dream-pop, David Bowie-style that you’ll see on Kaputt. We’re not expecting to see Bejar on any podiums, even if Kaputt is this genre at its finest.
Prediction: 30 per cent
Austra, Feel it Break
Austra follows Destroyer with a similar sort of 80s pop reinvented, but their vocals distinguish their sound completely. The shortlist is great exposure for the group, but we’re not putting money on them to win.
Prediction: 30 per cent
Braids, Native Speaker
Braids have a slow, melodic sound that gives you an idea of the scope of Polaris’ selection process. The powerful, echoed vocals and unique instrumental complement each other to form an organic composition. Braids are great at what they do, but what they likely won’t do is win at Polaris.
Predition: 40 per cent
Hey Rosetta!, Seeds
Hey Rosetta!’s use of string instruments add a unique sound to their indie garage rock, while also revealing their east coast roots. The St.John’s band likely won’t win for this album because they do what Arcade Fire does, sort of, but not quite as well (still a compliment). This is their second crack at the Polaris after 2008’s Into Your Lungs.
Prediction: 65 per cent
Galaxie, Tigre et diesel
Galaxie is a French-Canadian White Stripes with better percussion and richer production. Tigre et Diesel is full of energetic guitar riffs, potent drumbeats and psychedelic synthesizers. This album has an actual chance of winning, but it likely won’t happen.
Prediction: 70 per cent
Ron Sexsmith, Long Player Late Bloomer
Long Player Late Bloomer doesn’t stray far from Ron Sexmith’s distinctive style, but the production’s been streamlined for the mainstream. Sexmith is easily one of the top lyricists and songwriters on this list, and probably deserves the award, but we’re betting this won’t be his year.
Prediction: 75 per cent
Timber Timbre, Creep on Creepin’ on
Over the past few years, Timber Timbre’s eerie guitar strums and echoing vocals have become distinctly popular in intimate Toronto venues. If they didn’t win for their self-titled album (Timber Timbre, 2009), Creep on Creepin’ on probably won’t make the cut either. A solid dark horse, though.
Prediction: 75 per cent
The Weeknd, House of Balloons
This guy blew up faster than any artist in Canadian music history (balloon is an appropriate word association). The 21-year-old deserves all the credit because he made it happen on the back of his booming R&B vocals. If he wins, he’ll set a precedent for age. And he just might do it.
Prediction: 80 per cent
Arcade Fire, The Suburbs
This is the easily the best album of the nominees, and really, one of the best in Canadian history. In The Suburbs, and in previous albums, Arcade Fire packs so much music into an unbelievably intimate sound. But it would go against the Polaris trend to nominate someone so popular, and it’s for this reason alone that the win isn’t guaranteed.
Prediction: 90 per cent