Winter has been swinging between flurries and sudden cold snaps in recent months, but the next three months of temperatures might come as a surprise. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) just published its latest three-month temperature outlook for Jan to March 2026, and for most of Ontario, the forecast will be milder-than-normal overall (just expect plenty of room for classic winter chaos in between).
For Toronto (including Toronto Island) and southwestern Ontario, there’s a 40-49% chance of above-normal temperatures, 30-39% near normal and 20-29% below normal. Northern Ontario shows a somewhat stronger warm tilt in spots, too (communities like Timmins and Kapuskasing show even higher above-normal probabilities than the GTA!)
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s 60-day extended outlook for Southern Ontario, we can expect cold snaps mixed with mild stretches and then colder turns over the next few weeks. For January, the average temperature for Southern Ontario will be -6.5°C, with a regional split that’s below average in the east but slightly above average in the west. Precipitation will also be a bit lower this month (around 40 mm).
In February, we can expect a mid-month mix of rain-and-snow periods during a warmer spell, before a colder end to the month. February’s average temperature is expected to be above average (around -2°C), with higher precipitation (about 75 mm).
If you’re looking for fun things to do this season, here are 10 festivals to get excited about in Toronto this winter! The city also has tons of cool places to go tobogganing, as well as cozy winter cabins to rent nearby if you’re up for a weekend getaway.
If you’d prefer to hibernate from the cold (no matter how mild this winter is), explore these five indoor garden oases in and around Toronto to escape the winter blues, or trade the winter ‘blahs’ for warm drinks and some friendly competition at these board game cafés!
