The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to dominate the playoffs, holding off the Florida Panthers with a 5-4 win in Game 1 of the Second Round of the Eastern Conference at Scotiabank Arena on Monday night.
William Nylander scored two goals and an assist in the first period, becoming the 10th player in Leafs history to record consecutive multi-goal games in the postseason. Matthew Knies and Chris Tanev also each had a goal and an assist, so the team is definitely looking strong. According to the predictive odds from MoneyPuck.com, the Leafs hold the best odds among remaining teams to make it to the end (so, cautious optimism?)
The analytics site states that the Leafs have a 63.2 per cent chance of reaching the third round, which is the highest among all playoff teams. Their chances of making the Stanley Cup Final sit at 33.6 per cent, and they hold a 17.5 per cent probability of actually winning the Cup (again, the top mark in the league!)
Other top contenders include the Carolina Hurricanes, who have a 55.5 per cent chance of reaching the third round, a 27.6 per cent of making the finals and a 14.9 per cent chance of winning the Cup. The Vegas Golden Knights have 56 per cent third-round odds, 28.2 per cent chance at the Stanley Cup Final and a 13.8 per cent chance to win it all.
Our fellow Canadian team, the Winnipeg Jets, is sitting at 51.9 per cent third-round odds, a 27 per cent chance of reaching the Final and a 13.5 per cent Cup chance. Finally, the Dallas Stars are sitting at 48.1 per cent third-round odds, a 24.8 per cent chance at reaching the Stanley Cup Final and 12 per cent Cup odds.
“By running a simulation of the rest of the NHL season 100,000 times we can create precise probabilities of the outcome of the season for each team,” the site says. “For games further into the future, the model scores are regressed to the mean to account for uncertainty.”
You can read more about how the odds are calculated here.
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Meanwhile, sports betting companies are chiming in. According to DraftKings, the Leafs’ odds of winning the Cup are +600, meaning the team has about a 14.3 per cent chance of going to the end.
The Leafs are +575 according to the BetMGM online sportsbook, meaning that they have a 14.8 per cent chance of winning the Cup; still, the Leafs are only fifth-best in the league when looking at these odds. The sportsbook lists the Dallas Stars (+450) as the top team to beat, with an 18.2% chance of taking the Cup. The team is followed by the Carolina Hurricanes (+475, 17.4%), the Edmonton Oilers (+525, 16%), and the Florida Panthers (+550, 15.4%).
A few more games will determine how it all plays out! Game 2 of the Panthers–Maple Leafs series takes place on Wednesday at Scotiabank Arena.