After a stretch of summer-like weather this fall, it’s hard to imagine getting out those winter coats anytime soon — but meteorologists say winter may be closer than we think. Unless you trust the Farmer’s Almanac, then not so much.
According to The Weather Network’s first long-range forecast for the 2025–26 season, much of Canada, including southern Ontario, could see an abrupt transition to winter by mid-to-late November.
“October will still provide periods of warmer-than-normal temperatures, but there will be some notable interruptions with quick shots of colder weather, which will help to prepare us for what is to come,” wrote senior meteorologist Doug Gillham.
Across Canada, temperatures since mid-September have been far above normal, breaking records in several provinces, due to the climate crisis. But meteorologists warn that this warm air won’t stick around. Once the jet stream shifts, we could be facing a quick drop in temperatures — and possibly the first snowflakes of the season before December.
Driving the potential change is a weak La Niña pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean — a natural climate cycle that usually has an impact on our winters. In some La Niña years, Western Canada bears the brunt of the cold, while Ontario and Quebec see milder conditions. But when La Niña is weak, as expected this year, the cold can spread our way.
Another factor according to the Weather Network report is the warm water in the North Pacific. It can create “blocking” patterns in the jet stream that trap Arctic air over the Prairies and Ontario — but can also lead to brief thaws when the pattern breaks down.
In short: expect variety.
The Farmers’ Almanac: Mild and Messy
If you prefer your forecasts old-school or at least whichever sounds better, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has weighed in — and its outlook adds a different twist.
The 2026 Canadian Edition of the Almanac, which has been publishing long-range weather predictions since 1792, calls for a “wet and mild” winter across most of the country and below-normal snowfall in southern Ontario, including the Toronto area. That means we could be in for a winter that’s more about slush and rain than deep freezes.
Here’s what the Almanac says for Southern Ontario (Region 3):
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Temperatures: Below normal in the east (Toronto area), slightly above normal in the west
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Coldest periods: Mid- and late December, early and late January, early February
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Precipitation: Below normal in the east, above normal in the west
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Snowfall: Below normal for the east, above normal west of Lake Huron
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Snowiest periods: Late November, early and mid-February
In other words, the Toronto area could see less total snow but still a few well-timed storms — particularly in February.
The Almanac bases its predictions on a mix of solar cycles, ocean patterns, and historical data, noting that solar activity (which is peaking this year) and shifting ocean temperatures could both influence how cold air moves south from the Arctic.
Even so, the Almanac’s editors remind readers that “mild” in Canada still means snow shovels, icy commutes, and the occasional polar blast.
Both The Weather Network and The Old Farmer’s Almanac agree that winter is coming sooner than you think — but they differ on the details. And, who knows, both could be wrong.
